Now is the moment to deeply consider the implications of the US presidential election and its long-term effects.
To us in Australia, the immediate impact appears to be minimal.
Every change brings fluctuations in shares and currencies. The market detests uncertainty. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean a recession is imminent; it simply indicates that the market requires time to adapt to the transformation.
A leader like Clinton would continue to operate in a manner similar to Obama, resulting in no significant change for us here in Australia.
As long as a Democrat occupies the presidency while the Senate and Congress remain under Republican control, we can expect a stalemate that hampers real progress in global affairs.
Should Trump win, the scenario remains the same. Though he would be President, any efforts he would make to affect world affairs would likely be stymied by the Senate and Congress.
On a brighter note, this scenario suggests that the US might refrain from entangling the world in severe conflicts, focusing instead on domestic issues. The downside, however, is the absence of a decisive world leader from the United States. A power vacuum tends to invite other leaders to assume a guiding role.
This dynamic is observable today. Putin has enhanced his influence in the Middle East, positioning himself as a key figure in the fight against terrorism. His sway has considerably increased among Arab nations.
The US, perceived as losing the power and influence it once commanded, has repeatedly called for ceasefires but has been viewed as ineffective. Meanwhile, Putin appears to be gaining favor, particularly in Iran.
What I’m doing here is presenting a scenario filled with possibilities and potential outcomes concerning how these events might affect us in Australia.
Essentially, we will continue as we have. For us, this is not a contest between America and Russia. Our future is intricately tied to Asia, with China and Japan playing significant roles in influencing our markets.
As the US becomes more insular and Russia, inevitably, suffers setbacks in addressing the issues in the Middle East, the responsibility to ensure stability may fall to us. It’s important to remember that Australia possesses the mineral resources that the world needs. We simply need to invest more in scientific exploration and bolster education—particularly for our younger graduates—to ignite progress.
Regardless of who comes out victorious in America, we are confident that we can succeed here at home.
by Danny Mason
